It is remarkable how low US Treasury Yields are right now. We are talking about lows in yields that haven’t been seen since the 40′s and 50′s. I am watching it closely, and you should too.

Here is what I wrote on March 6, 2009.

Here is a quick prediction for you.

Obama’s radical spending/deficits will lead to a  legacy of trillions in new debt that will result in the USA bond rating being reduced from AAA by the end of 2011.

Think I’m crazy? Wanna bet me?

We were just downgraded last night August 5, 2011 by S&P.

http://michellemalkin.com/2011/05/31/chart-of-the-day-america-the-dependent/

http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=60214

Congratulations on the seemingly inevitable passing of a financial “reform” bill that does not reform anything of consequence and has ZERO CHANCE of preventing the next financial crisis!

Oh yeah, and it violates the 4th amendment.

“But Dan, I heard on the the news that…”

STOP!…There is no good way to end that sentence.

About 9 months ago, I wrote here that Obama’s 10 year budget forecast was way off and I said it would end up with our nation being $20 trillion in debt minimum, as it will increase as more of his radical spending gets passed into law. Well, a few days ago the CBO said exactly what I told you 9 months earlier.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — If President Obama’s 2011 budget were put into effect as proposed, the U.S. federal government would add an estimated $9.8 trillion to the country’s accrued debt over the next decade, according to a preliminary analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.

Of that amount, an estimated $5.6 trillion will be in interest alone.

By 2020, the agency estimates debt held by the public would reach $20.3 trillion, or 90% of GDP. That’s up from 53% of GDP in 2009.

Ya know, I’m not that smart. I’m really not. However, I am a genius compared to the morons in our current government who are responsible for the economic policies that put us in this position. This is one reason why I am able to see this crap coming long before they can.

China is back on top after some revisions now showing on the treasury website.

United States Treasury Department. http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

This is a good link to keep going back to as it is updated, so keep it in mind.

This chart was put together by ZeroHedge using BLS data. They have some interesting posts from to time but if you are not familiar with some of the more exotic investment and economic terms some of their writing might not make sense to you. This post however is right to the point. As you can see from the blue line, the trend looks like it will start to tick up again in the wrong direction.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mass-layoffs-surge-january-highest-july-2009

The above data is provided by the United States Treasury Department. http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

(The data in this link will change due to revisions)

Recently, China has lightened up a little on it’s U.S. Debt holdings, and Japan has picked up the slack. We have to finance trillions more in the coming years thanks to the super geniuses who are running our country. So, we will have to wait and see if these foreigners get tired of bailing us out at 3% interest. The FED has been and will be stepping in. You can count on it.

Remember these numbers are just the foreign owners. The total debt is about $12.4 trillion. Our debt will hit 100% of GDP in the next few years or sooner.

For whatever reason, I have good instincts when it comes to the stock market, economy, and investments. I always look at the numbers, but even if the numbers are as good as can be, if my instincts tell me to stay away then that is what I will do.

I often watch TV and see an “expert” on the economy bombard the viewer with data points that back up whatever his or her forecast is. Lets take commercial real estate as an example. The trendy forecast lately seems to be that commercial real estate has bottomed or is in a nascent recovery already. I have seen this forecast made countless times over the last month or two. Had I been on the show when this “expert” gave this forecast I would have replied with this little story.

For the past 12 months I have been driving past a newly constructed strip mall. It looks very nice and has ZERO tenants. For the past 9 months, there has been a huge sign out front saying they will give you 12 months free rent if you sign a lease there. Today, there are ZERO tenants. They are literally giving away free retail space for a year and can’t get one tenant! This is a good neighborhood with good average income and a below average crime rate. Does this square with a commercial real estate recovery?

Inevitably, the “expert” would tell me that while there certainly are still some areas struggling, my ANECDOTE is just that and does not represent the overall commercial real estate market as the “data” clearly shows.

Let me tell ya something…If it ever comes down to my instincts and anecdotes vs. “expert” data or government (BLS) statistics; I’ll take my instincts and anecdotes EVERY SINGLE TIME.

Don’t be afraid to trust your instincts, especially when you have the track record to back it up.

(By the way, be on the lookout for the possibility of a LUDICROUS seasonal adjustment to the unemployment report upcoming. The government can and will make the jobless rate literally ANYTHING IT WANTS.)

Here is Senator Judd Gregg’s take. (from National Review Online-The Corner)

Gregg: Welcome to a New America   [Robert Costa]

American government changed last night. “We are now functioning under a parliamentary form of government,” says Sen. Judd Gregg (R., N.H.) in a conversation with NRO. “An ideological supermajority in Congress, along with a government run by community organizers, has taken over.”

“They’ve taken over the student-loan program, they’ve taken over the automobile system, and now they’re taking over the health-care system. There is no limit to their belief that people should be controlled by smart bureaucrats in Washington,” says Gregg. “They’re putting our country on a path that will reduce the quality of life for the next generation, undermine our nation’s wonderful exceptionalism, and Europeanize our economy to curb its growth.”

Harry Reid’s health-care bill “was purchased,” says Gregg. “Our system of checks and balances is gone. We now have a government that lurches with great speed even though our system is founded upon incremental change.” And don’t hope that the House stops the runaway train, he says. “I think the House is ideologically even further to the Left than the Senate. There are many people there who are committed to taking us down the road toward nationalization.”

“In the future, discretionary dollars won’t be able to be spent on college or a new house, but on this massive new burden for Americans,” says Gregg. “Eventually, at some point, the pressures on the private sector will tip the scales so that employers offering private insurance send people over to the health-care exchange. It’s all part of their ultimate goal to get a vast amount of people subsidized by the government.”

This is an “unsustainable course for our nation,” says Gregg. “We can’t sustain the debt we’re adding. Soon we’ll reach banana-republic status.”

I agree. Actually, it is worse.

The financial accounting that is going on right now at the White House, CBO, and Congress would land business executives in jail. This fraudulent accounting is exponentially worse than Enron.

The guys at Enron went to jail for far less than what is being committed on a daily basis in this Congress.

Today Barack Obama said we need to spend money to reduce the deficit.

We literally are living in the bizarro world where up is down. I am not even going to explain how stupid this is. If you don’t get it, then there is nothing I can say to you anyway. God help us.

The budget deficit for the first two months of the fiscal year is $292 billion according to reports released yesterday.

At this pace the total annual deficit will be $1.752 trillion for 2010. Hopefully they will slow down their binge spending, at least a little.